Whispers That May Not Repeat, But Do They Rhyme?
Eastern Europe is no stranger to instability and turmoil. Are the recent events the early whisperings of a song this region is all too familiar with?
Winds are quietly starting to whip up in Eastern Europe. There are many who may recognize these winds as they aren’t new. And while we’ve spent the last couple of weeks in this part of the world, those quiet winds, in my humble opinion, warrant us lingering a little longer.
Russia’s commitment to a long-term strategy to reduce stability and increase their power in Eastern Europe has become more effective as of late. As a result, they are starting to successfully carve out a landscape of subverted influence and economic dependence. The combination of which could lead to increased angst around the world.
Economically, Europe’s lofty ambitions to pivot from fossil fuels makes Russia’s natural gas a key asset to increase economic influence. Influence that could likely become a tool for sewing potential geo-economic and political insecurity in countries caught in the middle. Even the United States is not immune to this potential tension as we already find ourselves navigating the Nord Stream 2 pipeline. It is an issue the US is carefully addressing as we manage our relationship with Germany.
Meanwhile, Russia continues to softly influence the Ukraine, and more recently Belarus in what would appear to be attempts to create political instability. Rather than physically imposing its will, Russia’s new subverted techniques appear to tactics that are quite effective. In our modern era, one has to wonder if creating instability through subversion and corruption instead of utilizing brute force could eventually to escalate to something that aligns with our visions of war.
Which draws our attention to the Suwalski Gap - a 65 or so mile stretch of border that separates Belarus and Russia, and Poland and Lithuania. In other words, the only stretch of land directly connecting the Baltics with the European Union. It’s difficult to defend militarily and presents real strategic opportunity for Russia. An opportunity that presents similarities to another historical nation with desires of reclaiming lands they felt were theirs and taken from them.
Recall that Hitler’s invasion of Poland in 1939 was preceded most famously by the Gleiwitz incident. The incident was portrayed as an aggressive act by Polish soldiers on a German radio station. The falsified event, which was staged by the Nazis on 31 August 1939 was one of several orchestrated events labeled as “Polish assaults on Germany.” The operation was dubbed Operation Himmler, and its entire intent was a propaganda campaign designed to signal various examples of Polish aggression against Germany.
The Nazis staged aggressions included an attack at Jablunka Pass on a railroad near the Polish border and Czechoslovakia, a customs station at Hochlinden, and a forest service station among others. It was a well crafted narrative and led to actions that are recognized as the formal start of World War II.
Coming back to the recent events involving Russia, notably between Putin’s Russia and Lukashenko’s Belarus. Putin’s accusations of the West’s attempt to stage coups in Belarus appear to be a propaganda effort to draw potential Russian sympathizers closer to the Kremlin.
There are also rising tensions between Belarus and Poland, some of which more recently resulted in Poland’s placement of troops along its border. As Mark Twain famously notes, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” It is hard to hear these familiar whisperings and not wonder if we’re seeing another painful Eastern European rhyme.
The recent tensions may not immediately lead to a broader conflict, but are we seeing potential steps toward a modern day Gleiwitz incident that Russia can use for future land reclamation effort? Russia’s longstanding desire to restore territories of old remains (not unlike that of Hitler’s desire to restore German lands of old) and there is no doubt we could be seeing the return of instability and turmoil all to common throughout this part of the world.
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