The Ominous Foresight of Henry Stimson
The statesman whose prophetic predictions that a future conflict would leave the West in ruins came true in 1939.
Henry L. Stimson is widely known for his role in developing the atomic bomb. He was a seasoned statesman and attorney. He served as the United States Secretary of War under Presidents William Howard Taft, Herbert Hoover, and Franklin D. Roosevelt. What he is less known for is his ominous prediction of World War II.
Throughout his distinguished career, Stimson showed a keen understanding of global affairs. His insights into foreign affairs were so regarded that they earned him a spot on the newly formed Council on Foreign Relations. The New York Times called him the group’s quintessential member.
The War to End All Wars?
When World War I ended, the world entered a delicate period. Teetering on the brink of turmoil, Stimson was a leading voice during the interwar period. Stimson conducted a thorough geopolitical analysis. When he finished, the assessment he put forward was sobering.
Stimson started warning others of a looming conflict. Rooted in his understanding of geopolitical dynamics and historical knowledge, Stimson saw what many others did not. The unresolved grievances permeating in a post-World War I created simmering tensions. Much of the world believed World War I was the war to end all wars. That civilization could never return to that precipice again. Stimson believed differently. He recognized a set of potential combustible elements that could erupt. And erupt at immense scale.
Stimson recognized expansionist ambitions emanating from Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. He also saw emerging geopolitical trends of regimes rallying under single leaders. Leaders who also possessed totalitarian characteristics. Stimson saw that the fragile state of global peace could be easily shattered with just a few aggressive steps.
A Memorable Speech
One of Stimson's most notable pronouncements came in a speech delivered at Yale University on May 11, 1932. There he ominously proclaimed, "The next war, if there be one, may well bury Western civilization beneath its ruins." This underscored his sober assessment of the trajectory of international relations at the time.
In an effort to prevent his prediction from coming true, Stimson advocated for robust national defense posturing. He championed initiatives such as the Stimson Doctrine, which condemned Japan's aggression in Manchuria and affirmed the United States' commitment to uphold the principles of collective security. He also stressed strong diplomatic engagement. He had hoped that this would deter potential adversaries from taking bold steps. He aimed to preserve international stability.
Despite his and others’ efforts to keep global peace in place, World War II would break out in 1939. Overnight, Stimson's warnings reverberated with chilling resonance. The conflict engulfed the world. It took a devastating toll in human lives and created massive geopolitical upheaval.
During and After the War
During World War II, Stimson served as Secretary of War. He was given control of the Manhattan Project. His reputation and leadership received full support from Roosevelt and Truman. There were times where he overruled military leaders, most notably by arguing against the use of an atomic bomb on Kyoto.
Given his oversight of the atomic bomb project, and his proven strategic foresight. Stimson is also credited with being one of the top government officials who understood what the Atomic Age meant for geopolitics. He recognized the atomic bomb’s impact would go far beyond military might, and could be used to drive diplomacy, economics, and world affairs. He stated the “most terrible weapon ever known to human history” could lead to world peace and a saved civilization. He had hoped the weapon would end destruction as a solution to human conflict.
Stimson would retire in late 1945 and spend the remaining years of his life on a sprawling estate in New York. When asked which of the Presidents he had served had been the best, he gave a politician's answer. He responded that if the question was directed to identify the greatest president, then the answer was “Roosevelt.” But he never articulated between Theodore or Franklin.
In retrospect, Henry Stimson’s career is believed by many to be unrivaled. He served under more Presidents than any other American of his era. However, his lesser known predictions of World War II stand as a testament to the enduring relevance of historical foresight and Stimson’s strategic wisdom.
History for the Hurried:
April 3, 1995: Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor became the first woman to preside over the Court, sitting in for Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist who was out of town.
April 4, 1968: Civil Rights leader Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King was shot and killed by a sniper in Memphis, Tennessee.