Russia and Belarus - Another Chapter in the Centuries Old Saga of These Eastern Europe Neighbors
Poland once again finds itself a victim of geography as Russia and Belarus continue to navigate aspirations for a Union State
Tensions in Eastern Europe continue to rise as Poland once again finds itself dealing with the unfortunate hand that the geography has dealt it. Belarus appears to be becoming more strategically reliant on Russia, which could destabilize Eastern Europe.
Russia and Belarus have quite a history. After all, the name Belarus is closely related to the term Belaya Rus, or White Rus. In fact, the first known use of the term White Russia to refer to Belarus can be dated back to the late 16th century.
The Russian Empire’s territory once proudly included present day Belarus. The territory was once divided into guberniyas and under the rules of Nicholas I, national cultures were repressed in a Russification drive.
Systematically Erasing Belarus
In fact, the efforts to stomp out Belarusian nationalism included banning the term Belarusia. Instead, the region was was referred to as the “North-Western Territory.” Belarusian languages were banned from schools and pressure applied to those who had covered to Catholicism under the Polish rule to return to the Orthodox faith. It is these efforts that are linked to a surprising insufficiency of the Belarusian language adopted by Belarusians today.
Russification was not just a policy for the Czar. It was also adopted and implemented by the Soviet Union throughout their rule of Eastern Europe. National architecture was destroyed or modified to resemble the distinct architecture of Russia. Settlements and streets were renamed to honor Russian figures or Russian traditions.
Restoring a former Czar policy, Russian became the second official language, many believe as a means to crowd out the Belarusian language. As of 2019, of 277 schools in Minsk, only six were Belarusian-language schools. City centers like Brest, Vitsebsk, and Home have zero.
Though census data reveals that over 80% of Belarusians consider themselves ethnically and nationally Belarusian, and astounding 72% speak Russian as their language of choice at home. Needless to say, Russia has long felt that the territory and inhabitants of Belarus are Russian.
A Sovereign Belarus, Russia, and the Union State
Even the sovereign Belarus we know today is believed to be undergoing a soft Russification. Through the unavoidable presence of Russia and Vladimir Putin, and under the power of Alexander Lukashenko, the influence of Russia on Belarus remains.
The sovereign Belarus we know today was formed in July of 1990. Within a few years of its formation, the country would adopt a national constitution (1994) and transition prime minister functions to a President of Belarus.
Enter the once unknown Alexander Lukashenko. He would sweep into the presidency with 45% of the first round vote and an astonishing 80% in the second. He’s remained president ever since.
It is said that some events are long in the making, and in history, this is often the case. The increased activity between Belarus and Russia we are experiencing today can be traced back for centuries. Only now it features the threat of formality and a long flirted with Union State.
Based upon an international treaty reached by Russia and Belarus in 1997, the Union State was was an organization brought forward between Russia and Belarus more formally on December 8, 1999. Its objective - unite the two countries.
Intended to unify the two countries, it created a framework from which there was desire to forge deeper integrations with one another. Within it, there are legal structures and constitutional acts that create courts, councils of ministers, parliament, and accounting chambers.
The foundations for greater political, economic, and social integration are all there - even one for a common currency. In 2010, a note on the Union State website boasted that the Constitutional Act was 99% ready for enactment.
Despite its intentions and all the framework it created, both nations have chosen to remain independent. Fundamental disagreements on oil, gas, and the coordination of tax systems slowed the ambitions of the Union State. In search of parity, neither side, thus far, has been willing to make the serious concessions needed to solidify the treaty’s desire.
Nevertheless, the two remain closely tied to one another today. Yes, the Union State treaty provides a governance framework which keeps the two intertwined, but so too does past and geography.
For Russia, Belarus remains a critical transit route and access to the West. When tensions between Russia and the West escalated, Belarus serve as a convenient middleman. Belarus would import goods from the European Union, slap a Belarusian sticker on them, and re-export them to Russia. For Belarus, Russia is a key trade partner and their number one exporter - nearly 41% of Belarusian exports go to Russia.
What’s Happening Today
Belarus’ 2020 elections were riddled with criticism from the West and led to protests and riots in Minsk. The regime that Lukashenko has created appears to be drawing closer and closer to Russia - which is further alienating Belarus from the West.
Earlier this month at the Supreme State Council of the Union State, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko signed an agreement that provided further integration of 28 programs.
Focused primarily on economic and regulatory issues - including two of the fundamentals that stalled Union State progress earlier in the 2000s, taxes and oil. While there were no formal mentions of political integration, they also reached a joint military doctrine.
Should these agreements finally manifest themselves in reality, this would be a significant step toward the unification of Russian and Belarusian economic and political structures. Simply put, one large step forward for Putin’s desires to have a single, sovereign Union State. A final Russification of Belarus.
As the drama continues to unfold in Eastern Europe, let us not forget or overlook the importance of history and geography. Russia has long considered Belarus an extension of the Russian Empire. Its influence is metastatic across Belarus.
Today’s chapters are just the latest entry in the Russia-Belarus story. A story featuring a never-ending desire for the return of Belarus to Russia, a return to power and influence over Europe, and the patient, long-game strategy it has taken to get there.